Guns & Roses back together?

I won't be the one to start this rumor, since it isn't even a rumor yet. However, the original drummer from Guns has been blathering to anyone who will listen that he has been talking reunion talk with Axl. Normally, I would dismiss such things out of hands. However, this seems freakishly inevitable if we look carefully at the details. Firstly, remember I wrote a couple of years ago that all bands will get back together. I said it before the Police, Pink Floyd, both Van Halen reunions, Rage Against the Machine, and the Smashing Pumpkins got back together. I said it before it was cool. I will say it again, and I am rarely ever wrong about rock. Barring death, all successful bands will get back together.

Now, I will admit that Axl reconciling with a single human being seems tough. However, know this. Axl is in the bag for the most expensive album ever made... ever. The last numbers I heard were around 13 million spent, and that was two years ago. So, let's use a flat figure of 15 million. Know that all record company money is leant... never given. This means that Axl Rose personally has a 15 Million dollar marker from Geffen.

Axl has to make this money back for the company. It isn't an option, it has to happen. What makes the story of 'Chinese Democracy' being the most expensive is this: it doesn't exist yet. Right, small problem recouping the investment with nothing to sell. Now, in order to move all these discs there needs to be massive publicity. Massive. Honestly assume a minimum of 5 million bucks just doing press and videos. So, Axl is on the hook for 20 million now at the most conservative estimates. Can you make that back selling discs? Not really.

See, a super successful CD is one that sells over 100,000 in the first week. Very few records have succeeded in selling a million in the first week. Very few: Pearl Jam's second album, Garth Brooks live box set, and an In Sync album. I can guarantee you that Axl will not sell one million Cds in a week. I know because I have heard most of the album. It is good, but not great. So how do we move CDs if they aren't that great? You tour, and boy is that expensive. Especially when your lead singer has a habit of walking of the stage and starting riots. Imagine what it will cost to insure this tour.


Financially speaking, the only possibly way for Axl to create enough buzz and enough cash is to get the band back together. Everyone is alive, and they were the greatest rock band of their time without question. In fact, Appetite for Destruction holds up to me as the greatest rock album of all time. So, either Axl gets the band back together, or those CDs will need a list price of about $5,000 each. Lastly, the album is supposed to be out in two weeks. There isn't a word of press or a single out yet... so that date is pretty much impossible.


I understand that I am just wishing this into fruition. They are the only band I never go to see (because they walked out of every single Phoenix performance) until the Metallica show... which I had missed sadly. The other issue is that there is simply no other way for a band this important and a debt this huge and a wait this long to NOT end in a full band reunion... right?